The plan projects a shortfall in health-service staff will only grow worse in the next decade or so. That’s because Britain’s population is all but certain to become bigger, older, fatter and sicker
since it first opened its doors in 1948 . Fixing the problems behind that is not easy, quick or cheap. For politicians preoccupied by five-year electoral cycles it is hard to make plans that bring benefits over decades. Thus workforce planning has routinely focused on meeting short-term needs, often in a haphazard way.
The plan projects the staff shortfall will only grow worse in the next decade or so. By 2036-37, it suggests, thewill be short of between 260,000 and 360,000 staff. That’s because Britain’s population is all but certain to become bigger, older, fatter and sicker in the coming years.increasingly relies on agency workers, known as locum staff. But this is not sustainable. In 2021-22 it spent nearly £3bn on this alone.
Thus it is essential to train more Britons, too. The government says it will provide an extra £2.4bn to pay for extra education and training places over the next six years. To train one nurse today costs over £60,000—and typically around a quarter of trainees drop out of their courses. Some training may be shortened, and more apprenticeships are also proposed.
Finding ways to better hold on to existing staff, far too many of whom are leaving, is even more important. Allowing more flexible working and finding ways to lift dismal morale would help enormously. Some of that is about getting leaders to listen more to junior staff. Small changes could also have a big impact. It’s not rocket science,” says Kate Jarman, a senior manager at Milton Keynes University Hospital and a co-founder of Flex, a movement to promote flexible working.
All of that should help to fill some of the expected shortfall in staff—but overall numbers are not the only concern. Staffing costs already consume two-thirds of hospitals’ budgets. Making the workers more productive, therefore, is another pressing need. Some of this is about making much better use of technology. In addition, resources are devoted to areas such as Accident and Emergency, when they would have greater impact if spent on early treatment or preventative care.
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