With the delivery of Leopard battle tanks from Germany, the Ukraine war is entering into a new and dangerous phase. Olaf Scholz must now clean up the political damage he has caused, hold his country together and find a path with his international…
There are two iterations of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz these days. One is calm, almost diffident, the Scholz the country knows best. This iteration is the one most often seen on television or in the Bundestag, Germany's parliament. A man who seems almost impervious to the political machinations going on around him. Like on Wednesday of this week: out of the car, into the Bundestag, out of the Bundestag and back into the car. Here and there a smile.
For Ukraine, such risks are secondary to its ongoing existential struggle. From Kyiv's perspective, the decision to send Leopard battle tanks was long overdue, particularly given Russia's apparent preparations for a spring offensive. Ukraine has been demanding the tanks for months, and now, the first of them will soon arrive.
He has infuriated Eastern Europe, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, because he took so long to make his decision. The chancellor has also angered some within the U.S. government due to his insistence that U.S. President Joe Biden also send American battle tanks. Despite protestations from Washington that the M1 Abrams tanks aren't suitable, Scholz's people stood by their position that U.S. tanks were an absolute necessity if Germany was going to send Leopards.
Scholz, though, wasn't ready. He was concerned about an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and was strictly opposed to Germany sticking its neck out further than other countries supporting Ukraine. Discussions in the Chancellery were focused at the time on how Putin might respond if Germany were to send tanks on its own.
Meanwhile, the Russians were busy fortifying their positions along the frontline, a development that Kyiv found alarming, leading Ukrainian leaders to intensify their calls for help. Only with battle tanks, insisted the team surrounding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as 2022 changed to 2023, would Ukraine be able to break through enemy lines.
If the German narrative of the meeting between Biden and Scholz is true, then the U.S. president showed understanding for the chancellor's position, but also stressed the U.S. military's doubts about the expedience and technical feasibility of sending Abrams tanks. The two leaders adjourned and set advisers to work on the discrete search for a solution.
In the public eye, meanwhile, Scholz had suddenly started looking like someone who wasn't just standing in the way of tank deliveries, but was also inflicting damage on the trans-Atlantic relationship. Scholz's junior government coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party criticized the chancellor's inaction as a"catastrophe.
Either way, Scholz dragged his feet, which isn't exactly a testament to his leadership qualities. He desperately wanted U.S. protection, which makes it look as though he doesn't have too much faith in Europe's self-reliance. On the other hand, the public verdict regarding the chancellor's alleged indecision may have been a bit premature – because he got what he wanted from Biden.
As such, Biden abstained from public admonitions, instead adhering to his conviction that quiet diplomacy would a greater effect. The result: Scholz essentially forced him to become even more deeply involved in Ukraine even though that involvement has become politically risky for Biden back home. It's not just the Trump wing of the Republicans who see the war as a waste of resources.
It has been an exhausting few weeks for Scholz, but what lies ahead is unlikely to be any less draining. Because now this is also Scholz's war – with its battle tanks, Germany is now at the apex of the anti-Putin alliance. Germany's relationship with the U.S. is too important, so Scholz will also have to make concessions to the Americans in the coming months.
Many in the country are agitated and unsettled. From the very beginning, the war in Ukraine has triggered fear in many people. Still, there is majority approval in Germany for the delivery of battle tanks, with 54 percent considering it sensible, according to a poll conducted by Civey on behalf of DER SPIEGEL. But there are regional differences, with 62 percent of residents of the former East German states opposing the move. Scholz's course, it would seem, is polarizing.
Gerd Koenen an intellectual and public figure who signed the counter letter, says he is disappointed in Scholz – not because the chancellor is now sending tanks, but because he is doing so too late."Too little too late! Just as he has been acting from the beginning," Koenen, 78, says critically.
Meanwhile, the postwar generation has a special relationship with Russia; the Cold War is their old trauma. Germany's forty-somethings and younger grew up in a stable European order after the fall of the Wall – from today's perspective a comfort zone in which freedom and democracy were taken so much for granted that the shock at the loss of old certainties is now all the greater.
I don't allow myself to be pushed, but when I do move, I deliver the best stuff: That would be a pretty apt description of Scholz's approach so far. Sometimes Scholz himself resembles a split poll. And not like a chancellor who wants to control the public mood through political clarity.
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