While much of the world seeks an urgent end to Ukraine’s agonies, China is biding its time and thinking ahead
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskIn contrast, one great power, China, is a study in patience. Privately, its officials project confidence that time will deliver a post-war settlement that is greatly to China’s advantage. Since the invasion on February 24th, China has rebuffed repeated pleas from foreign governments that it work more actively to persuade Russia—its “rock-solid” friend—to put a swift end to the mayhem.
One reason is economic. Bosses at China’s state-owned companies are watching the war with unease. Many have substantial businesses not just in Russia but also in Ukraine., a government-owned food giant, counts Ukraine as an important base. China Merchants Group, a state firm, owns port terminals in Odessa, a Ukrainian city on the Black Sea coast that is on high alert for a Russian attack.
Those sales dropped off after 2006, in part because Russia objected to Chinese cloning and in part because China wanted more advanced kit, which the Kremlin was loth to sell. But Russia swallowed its misgivings when the West imposed sanctions on Russia to punish it for seizing Crimea in 2014. It agreed to sell China higher-quality equipment, including missile systems and fighters, on condition that China buy in bulk to allow Russia to make a decent profit before the stuff was inevitably copied.
State media in China have touted the departure of Western multinationals from Russia as a business opportunity for Chinese firms. For some, it may be. Xiaomi, a Chinese handset-maker, already has nearly 40% of the smartphone market in Russia. It will probably benefit from the halt to Apple’s operations there. But Xiaomi’s sales in the country contribute just 3% of its global sales. The parlous state of Russia’s economy could discourage it from making new investments.
Officials in Beijing respond to foreign horror at China’s stance on Ukraine with a mixture of swaggering bluster and blandishments. America is the object of bluster, with scholars and government advisers declaring that the war has exposed President Joe Biden’s weakness and his fear of Mr Putin’s nuclear arsenal. They predict that sanctions will fail to break Russia’s will—a point of keen interest to China, which knows it would face similar punishment were it to invade Taiwan.
If Mr Putin is willing to strengthen China as a champion against America, Chinese experts see opportunities. “Before, the Russians just talked and talked about co-operation” in places such as the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, says Wang Yiwei of Renmin University. Russia still dominates this region, including through a trade zone controlled from Moscow, the Eurasian Economic Union.
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