In public, Asian policymakers are rarely forthcoming about the strategic challenge facing the region. In private, they are clear: a downward spiral in relations between China and the United States
and connected: South-East Asia today is probably the world’s most dynamic region. Its nearly 700m people are disproportionately youthful. They are keen to learn, innovate and apply themselves. And, more than anywhere else in an increasingly protectionist world, they see their future prosperity as part of a global economy, supporting open trade and exchange much more often than opposing it.
South-East Asian leaders might be expected to relish all the attention on their region. Instead, the summitry finds many in a nervous, even unhappy, mood. One reason is President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Most South-East Asians do not feel that it is their fight, and only a minority of the region’s governments have openly condemned Russia’s aggression. But Asian leaders have to grapple with the consequences of the war, like disrupted food supplies and rising prices.
Yet to all leaders in Asia, the faraway war in Ukraine offers a bracing lesson—about the signal importance of peace in their own region. As the prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, bluntly put it at a national-day rally in August: “Look at how things have gone wrong in Europe. Can you be sure that things cannot go wrong in our region too? Better get real, and be psychologically prepared.
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