The year ahead is likely to provide the most profound trial yet for that thesis and for the durability of China's rise.
A health officer screens arriving passengers from China at Changi International airport in Singapore on January 22, 2020 as authorities increased measure against coronavirus., the Singaporean author and intellectual, greets me warmly in a conference lounge here and hands me a card promoting the March release of his new book, bearing that provocative question as its title.
It thus also could mark a significant year for the emerging, generational clash, not of civilizations as Samuel Huntington had argued, but rather of economic and political systems, between democratic and authoritarian capitalism. January elections in Taiwan and continued demonstrations in Hong Kong have underscored the stubborn fact that educated and prosperous Chinese societies, even if not yet those in the People's Republic, will continue to demand more freedoms and resist Beijing's long arm. .
Despite all that, the consensus among delegates in Davos with whom I discussed China's challenges was that none of them would throw China off its trajectory of becoming the world's number one power – economically, politically, technologically, and eventually also militarily. Given the magnitude of the issue, however, there was surprisingly little discussion in Davos on how an increasingly Chinese-influenced global system might differ from – or perhaps even up-end – the post-World War II rules-based order of institutions and principles that spawned the World Economic Forum's creation 50 years ago.
When mostly European and Americans gathered for the first annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in 1971, China was still ruled by Chairman Mao Tse Tung as a largely irrelevant global actor with but 2% of global GDP despite 22% of world population. China's GDP has grown by 14,028% since then to $14.1 trillion in 2019 from $99.8 billion in 1971. It now has 16.4% of global GDP, compared to 23.9% of the United States.
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