Last year it was Hurricane Ian that drew a bead on Tampa Bay before abruptly shifting east to strike southwest Florida more than 130 miles (210 kilometers) away.
“Since the city is nothing like what it was a hundred years ago, the impacts now would be unimaginable. Tampa Bay is shaped and aligned perfectly to allow for huge storm surge,” McNoldy said.
Still, it could have been much worse. The storm surge in Tampa Bay was far lower than the levels experienced when Idalia came ashore Wednesday morning as a Category 3 storm near the rural town of Steinhatchee in the Big Bend region. The storm surge from that hurricane, a Category 3 with estimated winds of up to 129 mph , was 11 feet . At least eight people died, and damage was estimated at $5 million at the time.
Nancy Brindley, 88, has been through around three dozen tropical storms and has lived in Indian Rocks Beach, outside of St. Petersburg, since 1970 in a beachside house that has been a gathering spot for three generations of family and friends. That’s where she rode out Huricane Idalia with relatives.
Yet for years storms have bypassed it. Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, noted that only one of five hurricanes that hit Florida at Category 3 strength or higher has come ashore in Tampa Bay since 1851.
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