As a cocoon of material forms around massive red supergiant stars, it causes dimming that could indicate they are about to explode.
Davies and his team modeled both of the major cocoon-building scenarios and simulated what a red supergiant star could look like as it is embedded within these pre-explosion cocoons. The team found that both models created large amounts of optically thick circumstellar gas, enough to radically reduce light output from the simulated red supergiants.
The 'superwind' scenario, however, caused the dying star to be conspicuously red and faint for many decades preceding a supernova. This is inconsistent with images that exist of stars that eventually erupted in supernova explosions around a year later because the stars appear normal in these images. This implies that those stars could not have yet built up their dense light-blocking pre-explosion cocoon and suggests that this material must develop in less than a year.
This represents an extremely fast accumulation of material supporting the outburst scenario and disfavoring the superwind model. Astronomers could use this information and the dimming of a star to go on 'red alert' and get ready to observe a supernova within a year or so. "Until now, we've only been able to get detailed observations of supernovas hours after they've already happened," Davies said."With this early-warning system, we can get ready to observe them [supernovas] in real-time, to point the world's best telescopes at the precursor stars, and watch them getting literally ripped apart in front of our eyes."
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