The highly-anticipated forecast paints an urgent picture of a gas basin that is declining.
Industry watchers say the lukewarm response to the hotly contested sale points to a long-term trend of low interest in the inlet’s federal waters.
And while it’s long been known that the inlet’s gas supply is in decline,the most recent report moved up the date for when that supply will fall short of demand: 2027, instead of 2030, as it predicted in its last forecast five years ago. from producer Hilcorp that it might not have adequate natural gas supply for utilities past their current contracts — some that end as early as next year, which is the case for Homer Electric Association, and others which don’t expire for over a decade.
For one, it doesn’t account for how much undiscovered gas there is in the Cook Inlet region in general, but rather when production from known and proven reserves is expected to fall below demand. The report assumes that demand will stay the same on the Railbelt for the foreseeable future. It said after falling behind in 2027, available supply will drop to under half of all demand by 2033, assuming 15 development wells are drilled every year.
Officials with the state told the Senate committee Monday that even though there’s a good deal of potential in the inlet, the complex market there might discourage producers. And the question remains whether companies like Hilcorp will decide it’s worth investing more in the inlet when costs of production for its declining wells are so high.
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