The oil cycles are topping. Start taking profits now.
The last posting regarding the oil price indicated that there would be a high in late April.
The first graphic below shows that oil is overbought weekly having more than doubled from the January 2016 low.As we can see below, oil has passed the most bullish season of the year.Below is the daily histogram of expected price for the month of May. As we can see from these seasonal graphs oil is sailing into a headwind.Cycles Research Investments LLCThe weekly cycle is peaking.The monthly cycle is confirming the seasonal peak and the weekly high.
The $65 price level was cited as the 61.8% retracement of the prior rally and the likely price target for this run. This level has been reachedThe annual high for any April is on the 22nd. The high for the monthly cycle is on the 27th and the weekly cycle high is on April 20th. So, the high for this price rise will likely be between the 20th and the 29th. Following that time period, we will likely see the largest oil decline in 2019.
The Q4 2018 decline may have been an A wave down and the current rally a B wave up. The post-April decline projected by the monthly cycle may be a C wave, the most severe in an A-B-C sequence. If this is true, then the drop could take oil back to the old 2016 low near $26.I bought my first stock in 1966 and then obtained my BS in banking in 1971 and MBA in corporate finance in 1972 from NYU. A study cycles began in the same year. A 9-year...
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