News reports and buzz on social media that millions of Americans would have a chance to see the northern lights this week are likely wrong, experts say.
“The chances this week [of seeing the northern lights] are slim at latitudes such as Maryland,” said Bill Murtagh, the program coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “In northern-tier states, you might see a glow on the horizon.”, or a temporarily cool area on the sun where solar particles can escape, formed. Because of the sun’s rotation cycles, experts predicted a geomagnetic storm 27 days later — this Thursday.
He said that, like all data analysis, the accuracy of the models to predict the auroral activity strongly depends on the quality and amount of data analyzed. The northern and southern lights, collectively known as the aurora, are most common in the high Arctic and Antarctic regions around the poles, but they can venture to the middle latitudes on rare occasions during particularly strong geomagnetic storms.might be seen across the country this Wednesday or Thursday, but meteorologists said it’s difficult to predict geomagnetic storms that far in advance.
“Forecasting them more than three days out is kind of like wishcasting,” said Chris Wicklund, a meteorologist in Minnesota. “I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed Thursday.”In general, seeing the aurora borealis in the United States, especially in more southern states, requires little light pollution and clear, dark skies, often around midnight or 1 a.m., Wicklund said.
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