US employers likely hired the fewest workers in nearly two-and-a-half years in April as the cumulative and delayed effects of higher interest rates start to impact a broad swath of the economy
But the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will offer little comfort to Federal Reserve officials battling high inflation, with wage growth expected to have remained fairly strong last month. The unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to a still historically low 3.6%.interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range on Wednesday, and signaled it may pause the U.S.
While that would also mark the third straight month of deceleration in employment gains, payrolls would be well above the 70,000-100,000 monthly increase needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Economists also noted that job growth was becoming more concentrated in the leisure and hospitality industry as well as state and local governments, sectors where employment remains below pre-pandemic levels.
The service-providing sector likely accounted for most of the anticipated job gains in April. Further job losses are expected in the goods-producing sector, mostly reflecting declines in construction and manufacturing. "There is some risk that the growth rate of this series might firm up this spring to narrow the gap with other wage series," said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.
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