This is not the best time to start a trade war, economist says
Better first quarter growth and low inflation may make it seem like now is a good time for the U.S. economy to weather a trade war, but Don Rissmiller, chief economist at Strategas Research, says there are six factors he's identified that show it's not really a good time at all.
"It's good, but if you look at the sub-components, it's not as good as the headline. Inventories aren't the best way to be growing," Rissmiller said."We're going to pay some of that back." 3. Inflation may be low, but"there are still signs it is not dead," Rissmiller notes. He said rising capacity utilization, rising wages, slowing supplier deliver times are all signs inflation could make a comeback. The bond market, meanwhile, has not provided much"cushion" against inflation, with the 10-year yield below 2.5%.
4. U.S. bank lending standards, albeit still expansionary, do not appear to be all that easy. Rissmiller notes lending standards are a leading indicator for payroll employment.
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