Simplifying the trade war risk:
An electronic screen shows the drop in the Dow Industrials, Monday, May 13, 2019 at the New York Stock Exchange. U.S. stocks moved sharply lower Monday on Wall Street and extended the market's slide into a second week as investors seek shelter from an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. ; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also- Former U.S.
. In 2018, imports to the U.S. totaled $539 billion. The S&P 500's slide on Monday wiped out $600 billion of market value.. The S&P 500 is down 4.5% since trade tensions re-escalated on May 3rd. Prior to that the index was up 17.1% for the year. Corrections are normal and healthy.Cameron Crise at Bloomberg, there have been 803 days in which the S&P 500 dropped by 2% or more. On 59% of those occasions the market rallied over the next 6 months.. His tweets move markets.
This time around, U.S. consumers are likely to feel more of a pinch. On Monday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office released a of about $300 billion worth of Chinese goods that includes apparel, toys, cell phones, laptops and other items the Trump Administration may hit with a 25% tariff. Nonetheless, given the recent trend of rising wages and low unemployment, President Trump may be betting the U.S. is in better relative shape than China to weather a trade-related storm. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the trade war will hit China harder in the short run. In the longer run, the effects are projected to be more evenly distributed.. We can calculate what raising a tariff from 10% to 25% means in relation to the amount of traded goods.
To summarize, it's easy to see trade war risk when it manifests in market sell-offs. What's harder, and frankly a lot more important if you're an active investor
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