Russian retaliation against NATO and other American allies “seems a matter of when, not if”, warns Samuel Charap of RANDCorporation. He explains how Western leaders can work to minimise the risk
on Ukraine—horrific as it is in itself—has raised concerns in many Western capitals of an even-worse outcome: escalation to a broader war withallies which could involve nuclear weapons. While such a war is far from inevitable, the possibility of the current conflict spiralling beyond the immediate theatre of hostilities is real. Understanding how that could happen is essential to minimising the risk that it does.
The nature of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the reaction to it have opened up a wide range of escalatory pathways. Russia is conducting a large-scale military operation—involving cruise missiles, artillery, ballistic missiles, multiple-launch rocket systems and air strikesallies on land and shares the Black Sea littoral with two more. Moscow also has deployed a large force to Belarus, which abuts another two members of the alliance.
will go about destroying their own country. A proxy war on Russia’s periphery, a significant American buildup in Eastern Europe, Western economic warfare and fomenting of domestic unrest are steps anticipated in what they describe as aoperation to change the Russian regime. Even though all of his current woes result from his own aggression, Mr Putin probably views recent developments through this lens.
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