The capture of Lysychansk would put Moscow on the verge of claiming control of Luhansk region, but debate is raging over whether it can hold its gains - and whether a Ukrainian counter-offensive can turn the war
The Ukrainian internal affairs minister, Vadym Denysenko, who had acknowledged a “high probability” that Lysychansk would fall, this weekend insisted that when it comes to the neighbouring Donbas region of Donetsk, Russian forces would face challenges in advancing beyond Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The cities sit in the northernmost corner of Donetsk and further progress is judged difficult for a number of reasons, including terrain and existing fortifications.
Pointing out that its apparent gains in Luhansk have also been helped by Ukraine’s apparently strategic decisions to retreat in the region, he tweeted: “The Russian army is incapable of fulfilling the basic tasks of modern war. Instead, it [makes] incremental, slow advances, a kilometre at a time. It can’t break through, it can’t exploit, it can’t encircle. This is not a sign of an advanced military.
The result is a debate in the West about whether an already-stretched Russian military will dig in if and when Putin declares satisfaction in Donbas – and whether Ukraine will be able to eventually launch a counter-offensive of sufficient ferocity to achieve its own declared aim of pushing the Kremlin’s forces back to their pre-war positions.
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