The Ukraine crisis could worsen rising inflation and propel already record-high vehicle prices even higher.
Early forecasts for the reduction in vehicle output resulting from the conflict vary greatly given the fluidity of the situation.
The European auto market will feel the effects far more quickly than the U.S. and other markets. European automakers such as Audi and Mercedes-Benz have said they plan toat plants due to parts disruptions out of Ukraine — specifically, wire harnesses. AutoForecast Solutions expects vehicle production this year in Russia and Ukraine to get cut in half as a result of the conflict, falling to around 800,000 units.
However, Tim Urquhart, a European principal automotive analyst at IHS, noted the situation remains fluid. In December, IHS forecast global sales of 82.4 million vehicles in 2022, up 3.7% year over year.As sanctions grow and companies withdraw or suspend operations in Russia, the country's automotive operations face long-term risk.
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