Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy is poised to heavily influence the 2024 presidential election, even if the third-party bid is unlikely to be successful.
In polling for a national election that accounts for fellow third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West, Kennedy ispolling average. While distantly behind presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s 41.1% and President Joe Biden’s 38.4%, it’s an unusually high number for a third-party candidate, and high enough that if he were to draw that number of voters in a general election, it could scramble the entire electoral map.
And while Rodgers joining the ticket would be a doomsday scenario for Jets fans as their long-suffering team would once again be without a franchise quarterback, the possible selection of Ventura offers a view into the kind of disruption that the Kennedy candidacy may have. It is extremely unlikely that Kennedy will replicate the kind of historic support that Ventura pulled in 1998 that allowed the former professional wrestler to win the election, but he could nevertheless affect the race to 270 electoral votes in other ways.
While the performances of Trump and Biden in typical swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina definitely would be affected by Kennedy’s presence on the ballot, there are other states that have been uncompetitive for several cycles that could be affected.
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What RFK Jr. has over Trump and Biden when it comes to young votersNatalia Mehlman Petrzela is associate professor of history at The New School in New York City. She is the author of two books, most recently 'Fit Nation: The Gains and Pains of America's Exercise Obsession,' and the host of the 'Past Present' podcast.
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