Return-to-office is a $1.3 trillion problem few have figured out

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Return-to-office is a $1.3 trillion problem few have figured out
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Three and a half years after millions of office-goers were sent home en masse, companies, employees and governments are still figuring out how to adapt to lasting changes to corporate life.

But stark differences have emerged across continents and cultures, with Asian and European workers largely returning to offices at a faster pace than their counterparts in the Americas.

How it plays out carries significant economic consequences: McKinsey Global Institute estimates that pandemic shifts could erase as much as $1.3 trillion of real estate value in big cities around the world by 2030. In Hong Kong, tiny apartments and an efficient public transport system have given residents fewer reasons to work from home. There, subway ridership surpassed 2019 levels in March and empty office space is more tied to decreased Chinese investment than remote work. In New York, subways are still only 70% full on weekdays and only about half of workers are back at buildings on a given day compared with pre-COVID levels.

Cities matter as much as culture, says Despina Katsikakis, the global head of real estate giant Cushman & Wakefield Plc’s workplace research and insights division. “Cities in Europe are more walkable and bring together work, life and play,” said Katsikakis, based in London. “So, European offices are more connected to blended, vibrant communities versus the U.S., where offices are more dictated by zoning laws and in more isolated areas.

Still, American firms tend to be more advanced in performance measurement and evaluation systems that are critical for remote work when managers can’t observe employees directly, according to research from a team including Italian economist Andrea Lamorgese.In Europe, policymakers have stepped in to help shape the future of work by promoting more flexible arrangements.

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