The surge in U.S. consumer prices in May surprised economists and undercut the Biden administration’s hopes that inflation would moderate in the coming months
When it comes to “staples,” “the changes we’re seeing right now are huge,” Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said. “That’s a big deal, [especially] when your earnings are limited, and you’re living paycheck to paycheck, and there’s absolutely no wiggle room.”The war in Ukraine isn’t just powering gas prices, it’s also boosting the cost of airfares just as the summer travel season gets under way. The price of air travel jumped another 12.6 percent in May after rising 18.
But some economists say that could soon change, which may lead to decreased demand and hamstrung employment. “The message is the same: that they have to respond to this extremely high inflation, and they’re going to keep on raising rates until they see some sort of response,” Farooqi said. “A soft landing will be very difficult,” Goldwein said. “If they can navigate a bumpy landing, where we don’t go into recession, but we, with some pain, get inflation [down] — I would consider that a victory.”The World Bank warned Tuesday of 1970s-style “stagflation” — a combination of high prices and depressed economic growth that could spike unemployment.
There’s “a wide range of uncertainties around outcomes right now,” Farooqi said. “So I can’t say with confidence that it’s not going to happen.”A tight labor market has helped drive up pay for most workers — particularly those earning less.
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