The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its key interest rate at 6.50% through end-March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter in a June survey.
Inflation in Asia's third-largest economy snapped a four-month downward trend, climbing to 4.81% last month on higher food prices. Few are forecasting a plunge in coming months, offering little reason for the RBI to change policy now.
The July 13-31 Reuters poll of 75 economists showed the central bank was expected to keep its repo rate at 6.50% at its Aug. 10 policy meeting. In a June survey, economists predicted the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points by end-March 2024 and another 25 basis points in the April-June quarter.
Among those who offered forecasts until March 2024, a slim majority, 32 of 62, expected rates to hold at 6.50%, while 20 saw a cut to 6.25%, and 10 said 6.00% or lower.
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