President Putin seems to have decided that putting his best foot forward after this grave threat to his rule involves working on his image as a man of the people. 📧 Read the Dispatches newsletter from DiMagnaySky
, with the help of Lukashenko’s surprising powers of persuasion. There was a pause in Moscow on Saturday afternoon, a collective holding of breath, but the Belarus solution was enough for people to go back to their daily lives which so far in these 16 months of war have not seen significant disruption.
Those who know and feel the enormity of what their country is doing in Ukraine try to block it out. If there is nothing you can do, why engage? The latest opinion polls from the independent Levada pollster show support for Prigozhin dipping and for Putin rising, if only fractionally, as a result of the weekend’s events. Say what you will of opinion polls but this is reflected in my discussions with people on the street. And that’s if they even know about it.
But the Putin regime has suffered major shocks before – think back just a few months to partial mobilisation and the mass exodus from the country, and that’s before we even mention Chechnya. Weaknesses, cracks, fissures, however you want to define it, are relative. Watch what Prigozhin does next, what the involvement of violent mercenaries in the Belarusian context might give rise to, watch for a reshuffling in the military. But for now Putin has kept a lid on things and repressive, autocratic regimes have a habit of clinging on.
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