This could be the beginning of the end of the era of high prices. KevinTDugan writes
Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images It’s too early to call it, but the long period of inflation that has plagued the U.S. economy may finally be sputtering out. On Wednesday, the federal government reported that the Consumer Price Index, its measure of price increases, rose 8.5 percent in July for the year — a big increase, for sure, but a major drop from the previous month’s peak of 9.1 percent.
This most recent era of inflation has been a long and rough one, starting in the beginning of 2021 and, with few exceptions, marking successively higher prices month after month. As a consumer, it’s been exhausting. Since February, the price of oil and gas have basically been driving the rise in prices — which peaked in June at a 9.
The July CPI is just a single report, but as far as these things go, its potential for influencing the direction of the economy for the rest of the year can hardly be overstated. After it came out, Wall Street rallied. The thinking here is that the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to tamp down inflation by embarking on the most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the 1980s, might ease up a little bit when the central bankers meet next month.
The clearest thing that can be taken away from this report is that the most extreme part of this inflationary era is probably done. Remember, while 8.5 percent inflation is basically at around 40-year highs, the preceding 11 months — a period when the Fed was still actively keeping rates at 0 and buying debt — are baked into that number. However, there are trouble spots. The price of food, especially at grocery stores, is at the highest level since 1979. And the owner’s equivalent rent rose 0.
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