Post-ABC poll: House vote nearly split, GOP has edge on economy and turnout

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Post-ABC poll: House vote nearly split, GOP has edge on economy and turnout
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Republicans need to win a net of five seats to take control of the House. Democrats face overwhelming odds to prevent that from happening.

Voters’ intentions for the House are split about evenly, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district and 48 percent saying they will vote for the Democrat. Likely voters split 50 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic.

One other factor in the GOP’s favor: Republicans continue to be more certain about voting, with 80 percent of Republican-leaning voters saying they are certain to vote or have already done so, slightly higher than 74 percent of Democratic-leaning voters. Certainty to vote among Democrats is eight percentage points lower than in 2018, while holding steady among Republicans.

There is a notable imbalance in the intensity of those assessments of Biden, with 44 percent of voters saying they strongly disapprove of the way the president has handled his job compared with 19 percent who say they strongly approve. Biden’s strong disapproval among independent voters is close to the overall finding at 42 percent.

Voters’ intentions are little changed from a September poll. They are less positive for Republicans than earlier in the year, before the Supreme Court overturnedOne illustration of the divided U.S. electorate is the narrow split on the question of which party voters trust to cope with the main problems the country faces in coming years. On this, 42 percent say they trust Republicans, 40 percent the Democrats.But on specific issues, each party’s advantages stand out.

Twice as many Republican likely voters than Democratic voters cite the economy as one of the single most important issues in their vote . On abortion, the pattern was reversed, with 32 percent of Democratic likely voters citing it as one of the single most important issues compared with 12 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 28 percent say the economy is key to their decision, while 20 percent cite abortion.

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