Perspective: How good is Nancy Pelosi’s threat assessment?
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi speaks at a news conference on Capitol Hill, May 2. By Daniel W. Drezner Daniel W. Drezner Bio Follow Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a regular contributor to PostEverything.
The two things that needed to happen have happened: The GOP lost an Alabama Senate seat and lost the House in the midterms. The last and biggest hurdle is the 2020 elections. Given the malfeasance in the report by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, I certainly understand the urge by some to push toward impeachment. But I still like my outcome better.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi does not believe President Trump can be removed through impeachment — the only way to do it, she said this week, is to defeat him in 2020 by a margin so “big” he cannot challenge the legitimacy of a Democratic victory.“We have to inoculate against that, we have to be prepared for that,” Ms. Pelosi said during an interview at the Capitol on Wednesday as she discussed her concern that Mr.
On the other hand, I suspect it was a mistake for Pelosi to publicize any of this. First, it incentivizes bad behavior from Trump. Indeed, a day after this story broke, Trump seemed to be trolling her about it on Twitter: Third — and here I might be more sanguine than Democrats — in most scenarios, it does not really matter whether Trump contests the election outcome. If Trump wins 270 electoral college votes, he wins. If he loses, and the electoral authorities in the states certify the results, then he can complain all he wants. The Secret Service will still be escorting him out of the building at noon on Jan. 20, 2021.
Furthermore, it is worth remembering from the Mueller report that even Trump’s most loyal acolytes refused to break the law for him. If Trump can’t even get Corey Lewandowski to engage in some raw power politics to stay in power, I am dubious of his ability to get the people he would need to get to alter election results.
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