It is an indictment of both the state Democratic Party and its national brand that Oregon is now in play for Republicans, writes ZacharyFaria. 'This is the GOP’s opportunity to break through on the West Coast.'
Dobson notes that Democratic Gov. Kate Brown won reelection in 2018 by fewer than 7 points, even though it was a Democratic wave year. In previous Republican wave years, Democrat John Kitzhaber only won by 5 points and fewer than 2 points . Republicans have a larger advantage in the generic vote now than they did in 2010.
— Logan Dobson May 18, 2022 But the national environment isn’t the only advantage Republicans have. Brown is currently the least popular governor in the country. Though she is term-limited and cannot run for reelection, her presence could loom over the race. Oregonians gave her a failing grade for crime and homelessness, which has been a major issue in the state’s largest city, Portland.
The problems go deeper for Oregon Democrats. Progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner is poised to defeat Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District. Schrader is one of the more centrist members of the Democratic House caucus, and redistricting has made the district slightly more competitive. As a result, Cook Political Report will rate the race as a toss-up, offering the GOP another pickup opportunity.
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