Opinion | An economic mystery: Why is inflation so low?

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Opinion | An economic mystery: Why is inflation so low?
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Opinion: Why is inflation so low?

By Robert J. Samuelson Robert J. Samuelson Columnist focusing on economics Bio Columnist April 10 at 11:48 AM The Phillips Curve is dead; long live the Phillips Curve.

You may recall that Phillips refers to economist A.W. Phillips, whose 1958 landmark paper argued that there was a trade-off between unemployment and inflation: Lower unemployment generally produced higher inflation, and vice versa. Still, the basic logic remains relevant. As unemployment declined, upward pressures on wages and prices would intensify. This assumption is at the core of the Federal Reserve’s economic policymaking and is the main justification for raising interest rates when the economy improves. The Fed’s goal is to keep the economy growing without triggering higher inflation.

In their paper and blog post, Christopher G. Collins and Joseph E. Gagnon of the Peterson Institute find that “the relationship between inflation and unemployment has shifted.” But they don’t conclude that the change is permanent or irreversible. A continuing recovery could produce an unexpected rise in inflation, Gagnon said in an interview.

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