Op-Ed: What game theory can tell us about the war in Ukraine (via latimesopinion)
D. talks about neo-Nazis in Russia and remembers his friend who as killed by them 17 years ago. K. discusses antisemitism in Ukraine and Putin’s false justification for the war.What does this imply for the alliance of countries supporting Ukraine’s independence? Clearly, the way to induce Putin to stop his war of aggression now is to make him believe that there is no way that he can possibly win six months down the road.
However, if one side in such a stalemate can persuade the other that it will never give up, then the other side has an incentive to back down immediately in order to avoid wasting its resources in a fruitless struggle. In a war of attrition, the real game is therefore often one of psychology and competing resolve, to project one’s own strength and endurance and believe in the other side’s weakness.Handicapping the outcome would amount to strategic malpractice.
Putin has thus far failed to project an image of overwhelming strength, but his disdain for the West and his belief in our weakness and irresolution are. Although Putin may be wrong to underestimate us, his error ironically strengthens his hand in the current conflict, as it gives him the hope he needs to continue the fight. Unfortunately, this means that peace in Europe will not be restored until the West shows the kind of strength and resolve that Putin does not expect.
The second possibility is that Russia takes Ukraine. This would leave Putin in a stronger position, with Ukraine’s land, industrial production and natural resources in Russia’s hands.
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