Climate change made the unprecedented monsoon rainfall that left one-third of Pakistan underwater last month far more likely, according to a team of scientists who analyzed the event.
People wade through flooded waters near their houses after heavy monsoon rains in the Sindh province of Pakistan on Sept. 7.and caused an estimated $30 billion in damage, and it has left hundreds of thousands homeless. In August, the Sindh and Balochistan provinces both had their highest rainfall totals ever recorded for the month — about seven and eight times their typical monthly totals for precipitation.
Flooded residential areas after heavy monsoon rains in the Balochistan province of Pakistan on Sept. 5.To understand climate change’s fingerprint on the event, the researchers analyzed the yearly maximum for monsoon season rainfall over 60 days in the Indus River basin, where the flooding was centered. They also looked at the heaviest five-day period of monsoon rainfall in hard-hit Sindh and Balochistan.
The intense monsoon rains “would have been a disastrously high rainfall event without climate change, but it’s worse because of climate change,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment and a co-founder of the initiative. “Especially in these highly vulnerable regions, small changes matter a lot.”
“Climate models are known to generally struggle to capture monsoon characteristics in this part of the world,” said Mariam Zachariah, a research associate at the Grantham Institute, which is part of Imperial College London. “We saw that there’s a large uncertainty around the results from the models.”
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