Barbara Kollmeyer is based in Madrid, where she leads MarketWatch's pre-markets coverage of financial markets and writes the Need to Know column. She has worked in London and Los Angeles for MarketWatch previously. Follow her on Twitter @bkollmeyer.
Oil prices climbed on Monday, as traders assessed implications for crude supplies after a surprise, deadly attack by Hamas on Israel over the weekend.
Oil prices surged over 4% as trading opened on Sunday, amid concerns that any involvement of Iran, if affirmed, will mean possible sanctions on that country’s crude exports, which have pushed toward pre-2018 levels in recent months. Some analysts have put Iranian crude production at more than 3 million barrels a day and exports above 2 million barrels a day — the highest levels since the Trump administration pulled the U.S. out of the Iranian nuclear accord in 2018, according to The Wall Street Journal. Sales fell to around 400,000 barrels a day in 2020 as the U.S. reimposed sanctions.
“Timing is everything and the attacks almost certainly postpone any Saudi/Israeli rapprochement, along with any high probability expectation of Saudi Arabia reducing or eliminating its extra 1-m b/d cut if prices resume their recent fall. Risks also grow for an Israeli attack on Iran, given its support and encouragement to Hamas, with timing an open question. Meanwhile, any expansion of battles will have potential repercussions on oil markets,” said Morse and the team.
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