Four ETFs that make it easy to bet on a higher oil price.
Oil isn’t the hedge against Middle East turmoil it used to be. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t own crude for a little extra protection against a wider conflict.
Futures tied to the U.S. price of crude oil spiked to around $86.50 barrel on Monday, from near $83 on Friday. That gain reversed over the next few trading days, with oil back to $83 a barrel by Thursday—meaning no additional premium for the events of the past week. Nonetheless, oil could make sense as a hedge against geopolitical risk. Tragically, the fighting between Israel and Hamas is likely to result in significant bloodshed. Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and other regional powers may feel compelled to respond. Enough escalation may even draw the U.S. into the conflict. Long-term dynamics aside, the market’s knee-jerk reaction will be to send oil prices sharply higher the morning after the next bit of bad news from the Middle East.
For investors, buying oil here is a trade with asymmetric near-term odds. On the one hand, oil is unlikely to fall below $75—supported by the same supply/demand dynamics that have kept the price above that level for most of 2023. But a spike to $100 a barrel is in the cards if the fighting escalates. That’s a potential upside of around 20% from Thursday’s $83 a barrel, but downside risk of less than 10%.
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