Bitcoin is being eyed with caution as surging inflation-adjusted and nominal government bond yields in the U.S. and worldwide could complicate matters for risk assets. godbole17 reports.
have put the market on solid footing, macro factors threaten to make the ground shaky again.
"Another big leg up for gold and bitcoin will likely occur when real yields stop rising. We are not there yet," Jeroen Blokland, founder and research head at investment research platform True Insights,Kaiko Research's weekly newsletter published Monday said,"typically rising borrowing costs hurt risk assets such as tech stocks and crypto, which appear less attractive to investors than safe-haven bonds.
The chart above shows a lack of consistent correlation between bitcoin and the real yield. However, bitcoin's November peak coincided with a bottom in the 10-year real yield. Perhaps macro traders, who accumulated bitcoin as a store of value asset in the aftermath of the coronavirus-induced crash of March 2020, trimmed exposure, tracking the uptick in the real yield, asHawkish Fed expectations and a continued rise in the nominal 10-year yield have led to a sharp increase in the real yield.
"The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield is continuing in Asian trading. There've been plenty of bond market false alarms over the years, but this is beginning to look a lot like the long-feared break-out," John Authers, Bloomberg's senior editor for markets, tweeted.