Even in pre-COVID years the health service would struggle to treat the sheer number of ill people at winter. Sky News analysis of the latest NHS data shows that last month, usually one of the quietest times, it fared worse than any winter peak.
The phrase"NHS winter crisis" is often over-used, but in a post-COVID 2022 it undersells the emergency in the health service.
This June, waiting times at A&Es in England were worse than they ever have been during a"winter crisis", including the most recent winter which itself broke unwanted records. It's no better in Scotland. On Tuesday it recorded its highest ever weekly total of patients who had to wait more than four hours in A&E, overtaking the previous record set a week before. 35.1% of people exceeded the timeframe, seven times more than the government target.
In June 2022 there were 22,034, 47 times more than June three years ago, 34 times more than that pre-pandemic winter record, 76 times more than the total for eight full years worth of Junes from 2011 to 2018.The waiting list for hospital treatment - the list that is meant to be cleared during the summer months - has been growing for two full years. In May it included 6.6m people, 11% of the population. Previously, the record number of months of back-to-back growth was eight.
Yesterday health minister Maria Caulfield told the Commons that the heatwave was causing the ambulance service to see"the sort of pressures we would normally expect to see in winter."There are about 13,000 people in hospital with COVID, and cases have been rising among staff. Presence of the disease limits how quickly NHS staff can perform, but it is not causing the intense disruption it has done over the last few years.
"That means you can't admit people from A&E that need to be admitted. That means A&E is busy, and when ambulances come along they have to wait outside because A&E is full. There is a lack of capacity throughout the system.Mr Brimelow warns that the crisis is driving staff out of the profession and that means the situation could get even worse.
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