Austin Mock's projection model has point differentials, point totals and win probabilities for every NFL Week 5 game.
Here are my game projections for Week 4 of the season. If you’re new to this series, I project the spread for every game and the chance of victory for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game.
is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total listed as of publish time to the right of that number. All odds from The projection for the Raiders–Packers game is not included because of the uncertainty around ’s injury status. If Garoppolo were healthy it would be by 0.5 points with a point total of 44.5. If is the quarterback, it’s by 3 points with a point total of 40.5 Team xMOV BETMGM Line xTOTAL BETMGM TOTAL xWIN 44.5 44.5 29.1% -8.3 -5 70.9% 49 48.5 32.0% -5.5 -5.5 68.0% 41.
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