See game projections for every NFL Week 1 game from The Athletic's NFL betting model.
betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance a game covers the spread or total. I use an “edge threshold” to determine what to bet on. You can find my If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it’s likely because of an injury or some other circumstance that I’m not confident my model can capture.
If any injury report news on Friday adjusts my model, we will update the table and note it in this section.
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