The Broncos have a dismal record in real life and against the spread, thanks to a defense that can’t stop anyone. The Packers will take advantage.
, and that my current five-game losing streak is more indicative of my talent for picking NFL games. Well, not so fast. The San Francisco 49ers, listed as 6½-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns at the timewere published, were bet up to 10-point favorites, indicating the market’s momentum was in our favor. It was only after the 49ers lost wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey that the game seemed truly in doubt.
As for the Atlanta Falcons — last week’s other best bet — they outplayed the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Atlanta generated more net yards per play, forced Washington into three-and-outs more often and had a higher success rate on offense, defined here as a play that improves a team’s chances of scoring on a particular drive. The ultimate deciding factor was turnovers.
Denver also ranks last in net passing yards allowed per attempt, passer rating against, rushing yards allowed per attempt and yards allowed per drive. It’s possible a few colleagues from The Washington Post sports department and I could score enough on this Denver defense to cover a one-point spread.The play above represents our best bet of the week because our analysis shows its value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field.
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