The most likely economic scenario is a 'boil the frog' recession featuring a synchronized global hard landing in 2024, JPMorgan says
"Central bank aspirations for a soft landing have tempered the pace of tightening. However, hopes for a painless slide in inflation back to target are likely to be dashed, requiring policy to turn sufficiently restrictive to break the back of the expansion," the economists said.
"Broad-based developed-market tightening points to a more synchronized global downturn sometime in 2024," they added. The second-most likely outcome is a"slip-sliding away" recession, which economists say has a 32% chance of happening. That scenario involves a mild US recession in late 2023 to early 2024, as a continuation of the ongoing credit crunch pushes the US into a downturn while other economies around the world remain resilient.scenario, a situation where the economy avoids a recession altogether. It also sees a 10% chance the US will slip into an immediate recession in mid-2023.
Fed officials have warned rates could tread higher this year as it continues to get a handle on inflation. Markets are pricing in a
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