Heard on the Street: The buffers that keep America’s natural-gas price fluctuations at bay are eroding
Natural-gas supply growth in the U.S. is expected to be somewhat constrained.Last year, natural-gas prices were—by some measures—the most volatile since the U.S. shale boom began about a decade earlier.
Volatility could get even higher in the coming years, Mr. Rubin notes. The buffers that historically quelled severe swings are getting thinner. While domestic natural-gas consumption rose about 25% between 2011 and 2021 and exports more than tripled, natural-gas storage capacity that ensures adequate supplies in winter hasn’t budged. Data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows that natural-gas prices spiked up a lot more than usual when storage fell below the five-year average.
Moreover, the ability for the electricity sector to switch to coal if shortages arise is diminishing. That pressure valve has been disappearing at a pace of about 11 gigawatts worth of coal-fired capacity every year from 2015 to 2020. By 2029, about 23% of existing coal-fired power capacity in the U.S. is expected to be retired, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Weekly average Henry Hub prices and U.S.
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