Lifespans into the 140s predicted by centuries-old Gompertz law PLOSONE
for the USA using combinations of use of data ages and assumption of the height of the plateau.However, even if we assume a much higher mortality plateau than data on past longevity record holders suggests would be appropriate, our results do show clearly that significant potential exists for longevity records to be broken in country after country and globally as cohorts born in the 1930’s and 1940’s reach extreme old age.
The first episode of mortality postponement that we identify occurred for cohorts born in the early part of the second half of the 19century, and was more pronounced for females than for males. Over this period, the GMA increased by around 5 years.
The timing of these episodes of mortality postponement explain why longevity records have been so slow to increase in recent years–cohorts old enough to have broken longevity records were too old to experience the current bout of postponement–and identifies significant potential for longevity records to rise by the year 2060 as younger cohorts, who did experience it, reach advanced old age.
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