Midterm election years are historically a bonus for investors, yet this year, with inflation and recession woes, more headwinds exist. The S&P 500 is down 20%.
With the U.S. in a recession, according to back-to-back declines this year in first- and second-quarter gross domestic product , any changes would be modest with possible fiscal easing.has rolled out trillions of dollars in government spending so far during his term. The government’s budget deficit — the amount by which government spending exceeds revenues — was $3.1 trillion in fiscal year 2020, $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021, and it will likely be about $1.
If consumer inflation, hovering at a 40-year high, remains at current levels, spending cuts could gain momentum, Goldman forecasted. The latest read on the Consumer Price Index is due Thursday and is expected to rise 6.4% in October. If the Democrats retain control of both the House and Senate, Goldman Sachs expects to see more downward pressure on stocks with additional spending and tax hikes likely weighing on corporate earnings.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, while presenting the Monetary Policy Report to the committee on Capitol Hill June 22, 2022, in Washington. Already, the battle to control runaway inflation has battered stocks with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking of interest rates. In November, policymakers raised the benchmark by 0.75% percentage points, the fourth straight hike by that amount and the sixth consecutive increase. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, more sensitive to rising interest rates, has fallen 33%.
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