Marine heatwaves devastate ecosystems and the coastal communities that rely on them — but the language around them is confusing.
Similarly, on land, researchers often judge atmospheric heatwaves relative to fixed historical baselines. Human-health impacts due to extreme heat are also linked to temperature thresholds, and infrastructure is designed to tolerate certain temperature ranges. The chance of hitting a ‘perpetual heatwave state’ against a fixed baseline is much smaller on land than at sea, because the temperature anomalies are larger.
. For example, those with short life cycles, such as market squid or sardine species, might have some capacity to adapt to a slow temperature increase but not necessarily to rapid heat shock. By contrast, some corals might recover from acute temperature impacts but not chronic heat exposure.
There are other compelling physical and ecological arguments in favour of the shifting baseline approach. It is consistent with how people think of a temporary surge in ocean temperature. And it makes it easier to see the connections to other forms of climate variability when long-term warming is removed from the equation.Both long-term warming and short-term, discrete extreme events are important to quantify, but they should not be called the same thing.
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