The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the United States September Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Monday, October 2
. The index is expected to have ticked modestly higher to 47.7 from its previous monthly reading of 47.6. The official Manufacturing PMI has been within contraction levels ever since falling to 49 in November 2022 and slowly moving away from the multi-year low posted last June at 46.Beyond the modest uptick in the headline figure, market players anticipate an improvement in all sub-components. The Employment Index is foreseen at 49 from 48.
Offering a sneak peek into the US data, analysts at BBH noted: “ISM PMIs will also be important. Manufacturing PMI will be reported Monday and the headline is expected at 47.9 vs. 47.6 in August. Keep an eye on employment and prices paid, which stood at 48.5 and 48.4 in August, respectively.” An upbeat headline should confirm the economy remains strong enough and that the country may dodge a recession. Such speculation should lift the mood and put pressure on the US Dollar, at least in the near term., notes that “EUR/USD is struggling below the 1.0600 threshold on its road to recovery, as 14-day Relative Strength Index indicator continue to sit beneath the 50 level.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD.
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