Long Bonds Signal Risk-Off as S&P 500, Russell 2000 Struggle: What's Next?

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Long Bonds Signal Risk-Off as S&P 500, Russell 2000 Struggle: What's Next?
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Stocks Analysis by Michele Schneider covering: S&P 500, SPDR® S&P 500, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF. Read Michele Schneider's latest article on Investing.com

The biggest fundamental dynamic is that inflation can go hyperbolic .Note the ellipses and text on the chart of TLT or the 20+ Year long bonds.

Back in March when we had the bank crisis flash crash, bonds signaled a flight to safety by outperforming the SPY starting March 7.Real Motion was showing a bullish divergence in momentum as TLT crossed over the 50-DMA long before the price did.Fast forward to today, TLT remains slightly underperforming the SPY.Should TLT do what it did in March - outperform SPY - take that as a warning.Let’s not freak out yet though.The S&P 500 finished Monday’s session 0.2% in the red.

The LERI shows corporate uncertainty increasing to its highest level since the pandemic, in line with what CEOs have been sharing on Q3 calls This week 1,695 companies are... American equities have enjoyed a hefty return premium for much of this year relative to the rest of the major asset classes, but in the current environment that outlier performance...We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.

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