As the third winter of the coronavirus pandemic looms in the northern hemisphere, scientists are warning weary governments and populations alike to brace for more waves of COVID. Here’s where the pandemic could go next
In the United States alone, there could be up to a million infections a day this winter, Chris Murray, head of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation , an independent modeling group at the University of Washington that has been tracking the pandemic, told Reuters. That would be around double the current daily tally.
These forecasts raise new questions about when countries will move out of the COVID emergency phase and into a state of endemic disease, where communities with high vaccination rates see smaller outbreaks, possibly on a seasonal basis. If that variant also causes more severe disease and is better able to evade prior immunity, that would be the "worst-case scenario," according to a recent World Health Organization Europe report.
Scientists said other unknowns complicating their forecasts include whether a combination of vaccination and COVID infection – so-called hybrid immunity – is providing greater protection for people, as well as how effective booster campaigns may be. "If it happens there, it can happen here. Let's prepare for a proper flu season," said John McCauley, director of the Worldwide Influenza Centre at the Francis Crick Institute in London.
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