Live Data Coverage: May Federal Reserve Meeting, Rate Decision

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Live Data Coverage: May Federal Reserve Meeting, Rate Decision
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Markets are fully pricing in a 50-bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve today. Rates markets have completely shrugged off any 'dovish' impact from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Rates markets have completely shrugged off any 'dovish' impact from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

We’ll discuss how markets may react to the May Federal Reserve rate decision starting at 13:45 EDT/17:45 GMT on Wednesday, May 4, 2022. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.There was been a discernible shift in tone among Fed policymakers since the start of April.

members openly advocating for a 50-bps rate hike – and one has even talked up the possibility of a 75-bps rate hike.into early-2023 . The 2s5s10s butterfly has traded sideways in recent weeks, suggesting that the market has retained its overall hawkish interpretation of the near-term path of Fed rate hikes. Focus remains more on the Fed and less on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

EURODOLLAR FUTURES CONTRACT SPREAD [BLUE], US 2S5S10S BUTTERFLY [ORANGE], DXY INDEX [RED]: DAILY CHART Fed fund futures have remained very aggressive in recent weeks, with a rapid pace of tightening expected over the next three meetings. Traders see a 100% chance of a 50-bps rate hike in each of May, June and July, with the main Fed rate expected to rise to 2.75% by the end of 2022.

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