Larry Summers maintained it would almost certainly take a major slowdown — and millions of lost jobs — for inflation to return to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Increasingly, that prediction looks unlikely to be right.
, the American Rescue Plan, for exacerbating inflation, arguing through 2022 that the U.S. economy would probably need a spike in unemployment for price hikes to fully abate and accusing President Biden’s team of the “least responsible” macroeconomic policy in 40 years. Biden’s economic policies had overstimulated the economy, Summers said on cable TV, in op-eds and in interviews, as well as in private talks.
“Sometimes we agree, sometimes we disagree, but there’s strong mutual respect, and we always welcome Larry’s insights,” said Jared Bernstein, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Publicly, the party’s officials continue to defend the rescue plan as necessary to grow the economy after the recession caused by covid. Privately, many Democratic lawmakers are ambivalent about, after punishing price hikes and the GOP attacks that followed. If inflation keeps easing while job growth remains robust — in defiance of Summers’s predictions — that would bolster the rescue plan’s defenders, as would a successful Biden 2024 reelection campaign.
A top aide to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, Summers had a large platform to criticize the law, warning as it was passing that it was too big and could spark runaway inflation.White House aides downplayed that possibility, and once the inflation Summers predicted did emerge, they insisted that it would only be “transitory.” When that proved untrue, the president lashed out at his staff and repeatedly reached out to Summers, who wasto the White House’s efforts to persuade Sen.
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