Were Kate Forbes to win, there is an opportunity for Scottish Labour to win over socially progressive voters who feel alienated by her comments on gay unions and sex outside marriage - and Labour know it. ✍️ katyballs
announced that she was planning to step down, politicians in Westminster were in a state of shock. Many were delighted by the First Minister’s departure – they had come to doubt whether one of the Government’s most formidable opponents would ever voluntarily exit the stage. “It’s the best thing to happen this year,” says one minister.
Allies of Regan believe the SNP machinery has rigged the contest so as to make it difficult for newcomers. Even among the membership, polling suggests a tight contest between Yousaf and Forbes. It would be trickier for the Tories were Forbes to have a surprise win. It’s not an impossible scenario given the lack of consistent membership polling and the fact that the polling there is suggests she is making inroads.
What both Labour and the Tories can agree on is that Sturgeon’s departure is good news for the fight against independence. While polls vary, there is evidence that the independence movement is struggling. Both Forbes and Yousaf have suggested they won’t be able to deliver Scottish independence any time soon. The period when nationalists were most optimistic about their chances was when Boris Johnson – a parody of Tory elitism for many voters – was prime minister and Sturgeon First Minister.
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