There has not been a lot of great news on the inflation front lately. Oil prices? Don’t look there. The national average for a gallon of gas hit $3.62 today, as oil tops $100 a barrel again–the highest pump price since the summer of 2008. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could easily push prices 20% to 30% higher from here, analysts…
Oil prices? Don't look there. The national average for a gallon of gas hit $3.62, as oil tops $100 a barrel again--the highest pump price since the summer of 2008. Russia's invasion of Ukraine could easily push prices 20% to 30% higher from here, analysts warn.
And it's not just about oil. Or metals. Or other commodities."The inflation picture has worsened this winter...and how much it will improve later this year is now in question," wrote Goldman's economists in a separate note Sunday."While the inflation surge in 2021 was dominated by pandemic-driven [imbalances], inflationary pressures have broadened and intensified in recent months.
Specifically, Goldman is wary of"core services categories," like healthcare, that"could be the next part of the inflation basket to heat up" because labor shortages are driving wage gains that are making those services more expensive. Overall, they now expect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, to only drop to 3.7% by the end of the year, versus their 3.1% prior estimate .
Against this backdrop, President Biden has to deliver a State of the Union address tonight to a public whose top concern--prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine--had moved from the pandemic to
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