At the current level of GlobalWarming—1.1°C since the preindustrial era—Earth has already passed the low-end risk estimate for five tipping points, putting coral reefs, permafrost, and polar ice at risk, a new study finds.
From melting ice sheets to stressed coral reefs, global warming is changing our world in unmistakable ways. But identifying “tipping points,” thresholds past which such transformations become irreversible or self-sustaining, has been more difficult—and controversial. Some researchers argue that emphasizing looming but uncertain points of no return could feed public apathy, rather than energize efforts to curb climate change. is likely to fuel that discussion.
To estimate tipping points, University of Exeter earth systems scientist David Armstrong McKay and his colleagues gathered evidence from ancient climate records as well as modern observations, model predictions, and current best estimates. They looked at ecological, atmospheric, and other systems to identify those most at risk of abrupt, irreversible, or self-sustaining change as Earth warms.
Holding global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C—the rough goal of the Paris agreement—could mean exceeding the best estimates for seven tipping points, the study found, causing the loss of mountain glaciers and the disruption of key ocean currents. Although the 1.5°C Paris target was initially a “number of convenience” produced by diplomatic maneuvering, Armstrong McKay says the study reinforces the perils of not meeting that goal.
But too great a focus on specific temperature thresholds could feed arguments that nothing can be done to keep warming to safer levels, warns Bob Kopp, a climate scientist at Rutgers University, Piscataway. “I don’t believe in magic numbers in the climate system,” he says. “I worry about [tipping points] feeding this idea that there is this threshold, and below it we’re OK, above it we’re not.” Instead, he says, each increment of warming produces additional risk.
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