The new maps were developed to replace the city’s current maps, which were adopted in 1987. They place about half the buildings in downtown Juneau at a moderate-to-severe threat of damage or destruction from avalanches, landslides or both.
“We started the hazard mapping update very innocently, right? We had old bad maps, we got a FEMA grant, let’s do new maps,” Watt said. “And then they came back with new mapping information that doesn’t square up with the common person’s assessment of risk.”
The new maps are much more detailed — the study’s authors developed them using a combination of geologic mapping, analysis of historical events and fieldwork. For some neighborhoods, they outline landslide hazards for the first time. The report’s authors also stress that human lifespans don’t line up with the timescales of avalanches and landslides. In moderate zones, for instance, landslides might happen every 10 to 100 years, which means someone could live in their home for decades without seeing one.
“What’s our rational basis as a municipal government to tell somebody, you’re, you know, high, medium, low, severe — but we can’t tell you about the probability of that,” Watt said. “We’re going to be fundamentally telling people, you know, you can or can’t develop, more and less, depending on these maps.”
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