Further gains will be harder to come by as warning signs continue to mount, JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note.
The recent stock rebound "is drawing investors in. Many, who were convinced last summer that any rally should be seen as just a bear-market rally, are now nurturing increasing optimism that recession can be avoided altogether," he said. But, "we do not expect that there will be a fundamental confirmation for the next leg higher, and see rally fading as we move through this quarter, with Q1 possibly marking the high for the year," he added. .
1 meeting by 25 basis points, down from 50 basis points at its December meeting. However, the central bank noted it expects "ongoing" rate increases. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. "It might be premature to believe that recession is off the table now, when Fed will have done 500bp+ of tightening in a year, and the impact of monetary policy tended to be felt with a lag on the real economy, of as much as 1-2 years," Matejka said.
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